運転資金は想定以上にかかる!

創業時における事業計画は、売上計画、収支予算など実績がないために立てづらいものです。売上、経費全体の収支予算が正確さを欠けば事業計画全体に影響が出ます。サラリーマン経験しかない場合や営業経験しかない場合は、どうしても自腹が傷んでいないため経費について考えが甘い場合があります。運転資金が滞ると深刻な状況に至りますので当初からの計画が必要です。

1.事業計画書の作成

創業時の事業計画書作成は極めて重要です。また自分自身の考えをまとめることにも必須となります。
他の人への事業計画書の使用目的は、株式会社設立での出資者への説明、事業パートナー・協力者への説明、日本政策金融公庫を含む金融機関への融資依頼などです。

2.売上計画

事業計画書の売上の予測に当たっては、楽観値、標準値、悲観値の3パターンから考えてみる必要性があります。
楽観値は願望を反映したものでしょう。標準値は極力他の客観的なデータに基づくものです。悲観値は事業がうまくいかなかった場合を想定したものです。金融機関には標準値を示すことになります。安全なのは悲観値であっても赤字が出ない、もしくは赤字幅が小さく経営が持ちこたえられる範囲のものです。

3.利益計画

利益計画を立てる上で重要なのは損益分岐点の把握です。
損益分岐点がいくらかを把握して、損益分岐点が高いと思われる場合には固定費の額を抑えるなどの改善を図ります。ここでは安易に売上を高く設定しない方がベターです。

4.経費予測と運転資金の必要性

経費では人件費や家賃などの固定費、営業経費などの流動費があります。
リスク管理では売り上げが思うように上がらない場合を考えなければなりません。
広告も効果が出るまでにはかなりの額の投下が必要です。すぐには効果が出ません。人的営業も信用力が背景にありますから成果が顕在化するまでには時間がかかる上に、その間の経費はどうしてもかさんできます。
通常の経営を続けていく上では一定の資金が必要になります。また入金と出金のタイミングがずれるために資金が必要になることも注意が必要です。これが運転資金です。

運転資金は、現金商売、もしくは支払いは買掛でも入金は現金というビジネス以外では、基本的に常時必要です。運転資金は、商品販売の場合、売掛金+在庫-買掛金で計算でき、どのくらいの資金が不足するかがわかります。売掛金は売上が上がっても入金していない場合に計上されます。
また、入金までには様々な経費が発生し資金が不足します。在庫は仕入れをしたがまだ売れていないものです。買掛金は仕入れをしたが支払いをしていないものですので、買掛では資金はすぐには不足しません。

5.売上が上がれば上がるほど、運転資金が多く必要になる

売上が拡大すれば資金繰りが楽になるかというとそうでない場合があります。売上が入金に直結しなければかえって資金繰りが苦しくなるケースです。売上を拡大したいために売掛金が多くなったり、売上拡大見込みに対応する在庫が増えたりします。また、顧客からの入金の遅れも増える件数が高まります。そのため、一般的に事業が拡大すれば運転資金が多くなります。

創業起業を目指す人は、積極性のある攻め型の要素を持った人が多いのではないでしょうか?それは起業のエネルギーとなり、リーダーシップとなる要素です。そして、攻め型の人は前向きで楽観的な場合が多く、売上計画でも楽観値で計画する場合があります。
しかし状況変化が生まれ、想定違いが発生した時に、守りに弱い面が現れる危険性があります。そのため、小規模でも組織で起ち上がるならば、補佐役に守り型の人を据えるのがプラスです。攻めと守りを総合的に持ち、攻撃性と防御性を併せ持った事業計画を作っておけば成功率が高まります。
組織的ではなく自分ひとりで創業起業するならば、固定費は低いので持久戦には耐えられますので、売上が予定通り上がらない場合に備えて運転資金を準備したらよいと思います。

<参考リンク>
TP Interview 003:株式会社CAMPFIRE FAAVO/CAMPFIREローカル事業部 北山憲太郎(前編)

【会計の基本】財務諸表を読もう!PL・BS・CFの違い

融資と出資は違う。創業時の資金調達に使うベンチャーキャピタル(VC)の注意点

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